Consider the forces arrayed against the oil majors in the U.S. and around the world:
The International Energy Agency, which keeps tabs on the global fuel supply, reports the world will face an oil crunch by 2012, forcing even greater dependence by the West on foreign oil-producing nations. As consumption rates rise each year, the world needs an additional 4 million barrels per day just to keep pace.
The question of where to invest billions of dollars, pounds, and Euros in order to tap new oil fields keeps CEOs awake at night. Tempestuous international politics have complicated the quest for oil. In 1960, 85% of known reserves were open to international oil companies. Today, less than 16% are open. The rest of the global oil patch is off limits.
Meanwhile, countries that had invited oil companies to explore, drill, pump, and ship to market, are now rolling up the welcome mats. Resource-rich countries, emboldened by higher oil prices and a growing global clout, prefer to let their own national oil companies – which are inefficient and largely political vehicles - extract the wealth. Venezuela, with its vast oil reserves, wrested majority control of key oil projects from the oil majors. Projects in the Orinoco Belt worth at least $25 billion are up for arbitration. Russia, the world’s largest oil producer and second largest exporter, recently forced BP to sell a controlling stake in an east Siberian gas field for a fraction of its potential value.
Around the world, production rates are slowing to a trickle. Intense violence in Iraq prevents a return to prewar production levels. Elsewhere, corruption and lawlessness add to the woes of the oil majors, threatening supply security. In Nigeria, attacks on Western oil facilities and kidnappings of foreign workers have cut production by more than 700,000 barrels per day, one quarter of Nigeria’s capacity.
Politics aside, disaster and hazard headlines say it all…Blast Rips Texas City … 44 Oil Spills Found in Southeastern Louisiana …
Rising prices at the pump cause pain for drivers and major headaches for oil company communications consultants forced to explain what to consumers seems to be unexplainable.
The industry’s crisis work must begin long before a foreign government seizes control of an oil field, a refinery explosion claims lives, an oil tanker runs aground spilling millions of gallons, or prices rise at the pump. But there is no one plan. Rather, there is a series of scenarios, each one calibrated to the most pressing issues at hand. Effectively dealing with these issues almost certainly requires:
In the end, crisis preparedness can establish an oil company as a source of essential information at the very moment when corporate shortcomings seem certain and the odds appear to be against you. It’s one way to communicate more effectively in a world far different than the last oil crisis.